The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees an important role for bioenergy in the energy transition. According to the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions 2050 (NZE) roadmap, a total energy supply of around 100 EJ would be provided by biomass, up from 60 EJ currently.
Of the anticipated total global bioenergy demand in 2050, around 60% would be solid bioenergy, almost 30% liquid biofuels, including energy use for their production, and over 10% biogases. Demand is concentrated in sectors that are either hard to electrify or require a low-cost dispatchable source of renewable energy.
Evolution of total energy supply in the IEA Net Zero by 2050 roadmap.
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) plays a critical role in the NZE Scenario by offsetting emissions from sectors where full decarbonization is extremely difficult to achieve. Biofuels and biomethane production, as well as centralized energy production from biomass, provide ideal opportunities to capture biogenic CO2, enabling negative emissions when the CO2 is permanently stored.
Main points
60% of the required biomass would consist of waste and residue streams such as agriculture and forestry residues, industrial side-streams and organic municipal waste. The other 40% would be obtained from crops and trees that are either produced along with food and feed crops or in dedicated bioenergy crop cultivations. The increase in short-rotation woody or grassy biomass production in marginal lands and pastureland would also have a positive impact on emissions from land use.
Total land use for bioenergy crops in the NZE scenario would amount to 140 million hectares in 2050, i.e. 3% of global agricultural area. This area is below estimated ranges of potential land availability, taking full account of sustainability constraints.
Electricity
Biomass use for electricity generation can support expansion of intermittent renewables such as solar PV and wind, to accelerate decarbonization. In the IEA NZE roadmap, 5% of power production would come from bioenergy, playing a role in firming up the power grid (dominated by renewables).
Moreover, heat-driven biomass Combined Heat and Power (bio-CHP) systems can be highly efficient and co-produce power in periods when solar power is at its lowest. Biomass is highly competitive compared to other (non-fossil) energy sources.
Transport
Biofuels provide a quick replacement for fossil fuels for the existing fleet, which is dominated by internal combustion engines (ICEs).
As electrification continues, demand is expected to grow from aviation (sustainable aviation fuel, SAF), maritime shipping (e.g. biobased diesel, bio-methanol, bio-LNG) and also long-distance heavy duty land transport (renewable diesel).
Industrial
Biobased fuels can replace fossil fuels in existing applications, and biomass can be used for metallurgical applications to replace coal.
Biomass and biogases are also suited to provide high temperature heat for industrial processes. An increasing role is anticipated for the use of
biomass to produce biochemicals, with residues being available for energy use.
Emissions
Bioenergy combined with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), provide a pathway to offset residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, including agriculture. Biomass can also contribute significantly to climate change mitigation via biochar, a co-product of thermal treatment. Biochar carbon is highly stable, persisting for hundreds to thousands of years when used as a soil amendment.
Furthermore, biochar provides additional mitigation through reduction of nitrous oxide emissions from soil, and has co-benefits for food production, water and nutrient retention, and soil health.
Biogenic CO2 emissions should not be treated in the same way as fossil CO2 emissions. Moreover, harvesting (for materials and energy), as part of sustainable forest management, rejuvenates the forest system, sustains tree growth and carbon uptake from the atmosphere, improves forest health and reduces risks and impacts of wildfires and other natural disturbances such as storms, droughts and insect infestations.
Source: IEA Bioenergy.