Risks of providing Ukrainian consumers with natural gas and thermal energy – experts


The heating season 2021 – 2022 is under threat due to extremely high energy prices. Experts from the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine draw attention to the extremely high risks of providing Ukrainian consumers with natural gas and thermal energy at affordable prices both in the heating season 2021-2022 and in the future.

High prices for natural gas were recorded even after the end of the heating season. The price at European gas hubs last week exceeded $ 930 / 1,000 m3 – the highest figure in history. The price of gas in Ukraine as of October exceeded 31 thousand UAH / 1000 m3.

Зростання цін на газ і тепло в УкраїніIn addition, in the next heating season there are forecasts of an increase in the cost of thermal energy in central heating (DH):

  • for the population by more than 40%,
  • for commercial and budgetary organizations 2,5-3 times.

Among the risks that should be singled out, it is also worth considering the termination of transit of Russian gas after 2024 through the territory of Ukraine.

An important aspect of rising prices is decarbonization trends, according to which new projects for the production and consumption of natural gas will not be a priority, at least in the EU. The European Green Deal is a key policy vector in the energy sector.

Importantly, a gradual increase in the cost of СО2 will also increase the cost of natural gas. The cost of СО2 in the EU has already exceeded 60 euro / t СО2 eq.

According to experts, it is possible to significantly reduce the negative impact of these factors due to the large-scale development of sustainable bioenergy, in particular the production of thermal energy from biomass.

Today, bioenergy in Ukraine already replaces 4.2 billion m3 of gas per year. This figure could increase to 20 billion m3 / year if barriers to sector development are overcome.